5/1 and 5/2 Severe Potential

Tomorrow it appears an active period of weather will begin across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley. This active pattern will usher in much warmer temperatures to much of the Midwest to kick of the month of May. Along with the warmth, ample moisture will be present to fuel several rounds of severe weather.

For Tuesday, it appears storms may begin to develop along a dryline/cold front over parts of eastern South Dakota, Nebraska, west Iowa, and Minnesota. Many of these storms may be severe, however tornadic potential is fairly unclear at this point. There is also a slim chance that more discrete activity could develop further south across parts of Kansas.

Wednesday could be a fairly interesting day, given several outflow boundaries may be left behind by Tuesday's storms. This could provide additional focus for storm development, as well as enhanced tornado potential in some areas, namely over parts of central Iowa.

I will be out tomorrow and likely Wednesday, and will be streaming live at www.chasertv.com.

Donovan Gruner

SevereVideos.com

Alright, so I haven't done anything with this blog for just over a year, but I am starting back up! This will be my temporary site until the new "severevideos.com" site is ready.

The next few days hold the possibility of being decent chase days in the Midwest/Great Lakes regions, so later I will be posting a bit about that. May be heading out tomorrow morning for MN/IA, depending on 00z model runs and forecast trends.

I am also using Twitter again (@donovangruner), and will be trying to keep this stuff as updated as possible while chasing.

Donovan Gruner

April 8th - 11th, Thoughts on April 14th - Tornado Outbreak Possible

Chaser convergence at Pizza Hut

     Last Friday, I headed out on a 3 day chase adventure with Brandon Sullivan and Connor McCrorey. We targeted a bit southwest of the OKC area, being models were showing a discrete supercell firing to the southwest.  We stopped in El Reno for some pizza before the chase, and met up with Tony Laubach, Colt Forney, Kevin Rolfs, Scott Peake, and others. Towers began to go up shortly after finishing our pizza, and we decided to head northeast.

    After sitting in a field watching towers trying and dying, I began to get a little nervous. However, a tower just to our west was able to break the cap, and rapidly became a monsterous supercell.

   This storm was a very beautiful storm, however it just didn't have what it took to produce. It came very close for a little bit, and despite the plethora of reports of funnel clouds and rapidly rotating wall clouds, OUN didn't seem to want to tornado warn it.

This should probably be tornado warned...

   After watching this beast for a few hours, it became apparent it probably wasn't going to produce. However, it did drop a good sized swath of 3"+ hail, and was very photogenic. We eventually decided to start heading north to set up for Saturdays target, but got sidetracked shooting lighting. As we were shooting lightning, the storm we were shooting went tornado warned. We decided to head a bit south and west to check it out.

N Oklahoma Tor Warned Supercell around 10 PM

   After sitting in a field watching this beast for a while, we began to head back to I-35 when it appeared the tornado threat was diminishing. When we were just about back to the highway, an intensifying couplet began to appear on radar, so we started heading north to see if we could see anything. As we were driving north, we began seeing a cone-like feature in front of us every time it was backlit by lightning. As we got closer, it became more and more apparent it was probably a tornado, or extremely low and immense funnel. We got very close and experienced 70+ mph winds, and saw a semi nearly take out a row of cars parked on I-35, trying not to drive into a possible tornado. This storm went on to produce at least one tornado to our east, however we decided to ditch it to get in position for Saturday.

   We made it to Topeka early Saturday morning, and slept a few hours. We then headed to Omaha to pick up Brett Wright from the airport. We then decided to get Pizza Hut again, being we'd had luck every time we had eaten there before a chase. We looked over data over a few pizzas, and headed out. After watching a Cu field on satellite for a while, we began to see the towers in the distance. We decided to head a bit closer to get a better look. We watched one of the towers begin to dominate, and eventually grow into a monster supercell just NW of Omaha.

   After going through a few splits, the right split seemed to be getting it's act together. It strengthened, and then rooted itself into the warm front. It then turned hard right, and began to look like it may produce. We stopped in Mapleton, Iowa for a fill up, and the storm went tor warned. We headed a bit to the west to get a better look, and may have seen a few brief spin-ups. The inflow at our location was so strong, it ripped the drivers door open, and bent the hinges. We couldn't get the door shut, so I ended up tying it shut with my shoelaces in hopes of salvaging at least one tornado.

 

Video shot by Brandon Sullivan Wicked Wind Media

   Shortly after the door incident, we found ourselves watching a nice cone funnel come down with a little dust getting kicked up underneath. It rapidly intensified, and became a 3/4 mile wide EF3. Unfortunately, it hit the town of Mapleton, where we had just filled up. We decided to head into town to see if we could do anything to help, and try to figure out a way to fix the door for Sunday's chase.

 

   We stayed in Mason City, Iowa Saturday night and planned for Sunday. We decided to head to the La Crosse area. Brandon did an interview with Canadian National News in La Crosse, and then we decided to head a little north and west towards Tomah, WI. Storms began to fire quickly, and a PDS Tornado Watch was issued. We watched  a spectacular show on radar as several supercells split and merged with each other over and over. Our target storm quickly became tornado warned. We saw at least one tornado early on, however weren't able to get any good photos or video due to fast storm speeds and excessive amount of trees.

   Later on, we got some absolutely incredible structure. The storm eventually produced several tornadoes for us, but the amount of trees made it nearly impossible to shoot any photos or video. NEVER EVER CHASE IN NORTH WISCONSIN UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES EVER!!! After seeing what appeared to be a huge wedge cross a few miles in front of us, we decided to just about give up... when we got a radar update showing an intensifying couplet just to our west. We sat still and watched a wall cloud spin across the road in front of us, but it just couldn't put anything down. Due to a lack of roads and how far north we were, we decided to call off the chase and begin heading south to Rockford to stay at my parents house.

   It was a great weekend, however it could have gone better. Unfortunately due to the door issues Saturday, we missed 10+ tornadoes after dark, including a violent wedge, twin stovepipes, and a multi-vortex tornado. I've even heard rumors that there was 3 tornadoes on the ground at one point. That storm is definitely one of the most powerful storms I've ever witnessed... and is likely one of the most powerful on record. Congratulations to everyone who got some amazing video and pictures of these spectacular nighttime tornadoes! At least I got to end the trip nicely by spending a night at home and seeing my best friend, Sputnik!

Sputnik

    It now appears that tomorrow could be a fairly significant severe weather outbreak across parts of the Southern Plains/Ozarks. A line of discrete supercells could develop along a dryline from SE Kansas to NE Texas in the evening. Tornadoes, some strong, are possible with any supercell that is able to develop. Potential may ramp up a bit towards sundown due to a strengthening low level jet around 00z to 01z. I currently like Central to East Central Oklahoma due to the positioning of the jet max, enhancing lift due to the left exit region over this area. SPC has issued a Moderate Risk, and I've been having good luck with those lately. If you live in areas affected by this system, pay attention to watches and warnings and stay tuned to local news or NOAA weather radio for more info.

Donovan Gruner

One of the Biggest Severe Weather Events of All Time

   Yesterday was one of the biggest and most widespread severe weather events of all time, with 20 reports of tornadoes, nearly 900 reports of damaging wind events, and nearly 200 reports of severe hail greater than 1 inch in diameter. These reports came in from nearly 20 states stretching from Texas to Florida, and up to Pennsylvania. This was easily one of the biggest severe weather events as far as coverage and number of reports in the last 5 years.

    This weekend appears that it will be another active weekend. Things will likely kick off in the Central Plains on Thursday, and several rounds of action on the dryline are expected through Sunday. At the moment it appears the threat could reach from Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas up to Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Indiana. More updates to come as the event draws near.

Donovan Gruner

April 3rd, 2011 NE Kansas Chase

Supercell West of Topeka, KS

   Sunday was a very interesting chase day. I headed out with Connor McCrorey and David Reimer of TexasStormChasers.com. Originally we targeted somewhere near Emporia/Ottawa, Kansas. After deciding to head further north, we spotted towering cumulus development to our west. After watching it rapidly develop for several minutes, we began getting echo top returns on radar. Being that the storm was north of the cold front, we were skeptical if we should go to it at first... until we noticed something very unusual. It had appeared the storm was bending the cold front to allow for it to pull inflow from the warm sector to the south of the front! The storm rapidly intensified into a beast. It produced large hail and possibly the most intense gustnado of all time, near Perry, KS.

Just west of Lawrence, KS... Base becoming visible to the left.

Gustnado near

This is the first storm we were on. A classic supercell, you can see it modifying the cold front to allow for inflow to come from the warm sector. This radar image is roughly 15 minutes before the gustnado was observed.

   After the first storm began to move into the KC Metro area, we decided to intercept some hailers developing along the cold front/dryline.

   This was a very fun chase, with some very photogenic moments. I just regret not trying to get closer to the gustnado!



Donovan Gruner

Tornado Outbreak Potential Tomorrow- N Illinois to N Texas

S WI 7-22-10

   It is beginning to appear that tomorrow's potential outbreak could be more widespread than initially thought. With moisture streaming further northward, the potential for tornadoes could reach as far as Northern Illinois. The main question of the day remains the location where the cap might be able to break due to a temperature inversion around 700mb.

CAPE 00z Monday

    At the moment it appears the two most likely areas for diurnal convection may be from E Iowa/N Illinois and E Kansas. However, if the cap should break Sunday evening anywhere from N Texas to Iowa, supercells will be possible with tornadoes and large hail. 

 

0-3 km Energy Helicty Index 00z Mon

SREF Sig Tornado Ingredients Parameter targeting N Illinois

NAM Sig Tornado Parameter targeting SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma, and N Illinois

   At the moment I am partial to E Kansas due to it being close to a triple point and a more realistic chasing target for me. However, I do like the potential in N Illinois. If it wasn't for classes on Monday, I would want to chase on my favorite terrain/road network in the country in N Illinois.

   This could potentially be a significant outbreak, so people across the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains need to be paying attention and reviewing severe weather safety before this event. Stay tuned to local news outlets and NOAA weather radios for up to the minute details.

Donovan Gruner

Significant Severe Weather Possible This Weekend and Likely Next Week

Damage in Yazoo City, Missisippi in April of 2010 from an EF-4 tornado with a path length of 149 miles

   This weekend it appears possible that the threat of severe weather may return to the Great Plains.  Things could kick off as early as Saturday and Sunday, however Monday through Wednesday seems to be much more ominous.

   Saturday may bring a chance for a few severe storms in N TX.  These storms would likely be supercellular structures, and would have the potential to produce very large hail, and less likely an isolated or possibly few tornadoes. The main question at the moment is if enough moisture will be available in the area with the greatest potential, and if the cap will be able to break before nightfall when convective inhibitation will substantially increase and likely kill off any storms that may form during the afternoon hours.

   Sunday may also pose the threat for supercells along the dryline from southcentral to southeast Kansas through Central/East Oklahoma down to Central/East Texas. This setup has much more potential than Saturday, however the cap seems to be the main question for this setup as well. Any storms that form along the dryline will likely be extremely powerful supercells, and will have the potential to produce very large hail given CAPE possibly reaching 3000+ j/kg, and tornadoes- possibly strong, due to good wind shear and the high CAPE values along and ahead of the dryline. Again, the main question is if storms will be able to develop due to 700mb temperatures being on the high side, forming a capping inversion.

   As of now, it appears a large and very dangerous tornado/severe weather outbreak is likely Monday across parts of the Arklatex reigion into Dixie Alley. This setup could potentially be the first high risk setup of 2011.  Strong wind shear of 50+ kts and CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg should be enough to support supercells and bowing segments capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Over parts of Dixie Alley, 850mb winds could be in excess of 50+ kts, pointing out the extreme energy this system will have. This severe weather event could even effect areas as far as Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Illinois. This could be an especially dangerous day, so people need to pay attention to what is going on. As Monday comes closer, details will become more apparent, resulting in greater confidence in the forecast.

   This system will likely continue to produce severe weather across the south into New England Tuesday and Wednesday before exiting into the Atlantic. If you live in any of the affected areas, stay tuned to later forecasts and listen to NOAA Weather Radios and local news for more details regarding this event.

Donovan Gruner