Severe Weather Expected From Central Plains to Midwest

    Severe weather including tornadoes is possible today from parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa.  Unlike previous days, it appears that stronger forcing and lower temperatures aloft will allow for the cap to be broken. A low pressure system/triple point will move into NE Nebraska and W Iowa by this afternoon, bringing the greatest severe weather potential due to veering low level winds near the triple point to the area.

300+ 0-1 km Helicity Across much of the risk area

    Low level helicity will be maximized by low level veering winds near the triple point, bringing the greatest tornado potential to SE Nebraska, NE Kansas, extreme N Missouri, and much of Iowa.

Maximized instability near triple point

    By 19-21z (2-4 pm CDT) storms are expected to be developing along the dryline from E Nebraska down through NE Oklahoma. The greatest tornado potential will be with any storms that are able to remain discrete for a while after development. Strong forcing associated with a shortwave trough may be conducive of a more dominant bow echo mode towards evening and sunset. This will shift the primary threat from large hail/tornadoes to damaging winds, which with some large hail could persist into the night through Iowa and N Missouri into Illinois. This system could also bring significant severe weather to parts of the East Coast tomorrow.

   Later in the week could bring more severe weather from parts of the southern and central plains, bringing more opportunities to chase Thursday through the weekend.

Donovan Gruner

SPC Tornado Probs