Another Bout of Severe Weather Likely for the Southern Plains/Dixie Alley

Another strong system is moving into the Southern Plains and bringing 

with it chances for severe weather, including damaging winds, large 

hail, and strong tornadoes. There will also be a threat for extreme 

fire danger in the Texas Panhandle region into West Oklahoma behind 

the dryline.
 

  The main question remains the timing of this event. The warm sector 

will remain capped throughout much of the day; however it appears that

a corridor of CAPE values around 1000-1250 j/kg may be sufficient to 

break the cap before sundown. In this event, there is a threat for 

isolated tornadoes and very large hail, especially on storms that form 

early, as they will likely remain isolated until a short time after 

sundown. The system is then expected to expand in coverage and likely 

quickly evolve into a QLCS type system,much like Thursday night's event. 

There will then be a threat for mostly widespread damaging winds, however 

a tornado threat should exist well into the night with any semi-discrete 

or embedded supercells in the line. This could once again be a very 

dangerous evening/night for parts of the Southern Plains and Mid-

Mississippi River Valley into Dixie Alley.

 

Severe thunderstorm watch for w texas and west and central oklahoma until 11 am

First Major Severe Weather Outbreak of 2011 Possible Thursday!

System drawing moisture from the Gulf

It appears probable that a fairly significant severe weather outbreak is taking shape for Wednesday night into Thursday. A low pressure system will move through the Southern Plains into Dixie Alley Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon and evening. It appears an early round of thunderstorms across W Oklahoma could will develop Wednesday night, and move across the state through morning. This first round of storms main threat will be large hail and possibly damaging winds. Thursday afternoon, storms are expected to form ahead of a dryline bulge and along a warm front across E Oklahoma. Along with large hail and damaging winds, isolated tornadoes will be possible with these storms. At the moment, it appears the greatest threat for severe weather will begin in Central Oklahoma and move across the state into Arkansas. The severe weather threat could continue eastward overnight, although instability will be limited, so the main threat will probably be damaging winds. Stay tuned for further information regarding this event.

Day 3 Convective Outlook Valid Thursday, 2/24

Another Round of Snow Expected for the Southern Plains

    Another round of snow is expected today through tomorrow in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, as well as surrounding areas. This comes a week after the crippling snowstorm that hit the same areas, making travel nearly impossible last week. Just as these areas recovered, there may be a significant snowfall tonight through tomorrow afternoon as well. The heaviest snow is expected to be in areas of Southern Kansas into Central Oklahoma, where 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible, with isolated areas receiving up to a foot of snow.

    Although this could be a fairly major storm, there does seem to be some hope for warm weather. Temps are expected to rise into the lower to mid 60's by Sunday, and continue through next week. This will bring much needed relief to areas affected by this storm and last weeks storm.

    If traveling in any of the affected areas tonight or tomorrow, use extreme caution, and stay updated on the latest weather forecasts.

Donovan Gruner