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| S WI 7-22-10 |
It is beginning to appear that tomorrow's potential outbreak could be more widespread than initially thought. With moisture streaming further northward, the potential for tornadoes could reach as far as Northern Illinois. The main question of the day remains the location where the cap might be able to break due to a temperature inversion around 700mb.
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| CAPE 00z Monday |
At the moment it appears the two most likely areas for diurnal convection may be from E Iowa/N Illinois and E Kansas. However, if the cap should break Sunday evening anywhere from N Texas to Iowa, supercells will be possible with tornadoes and large hail.
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| 0-3 km Energy Helicty Index 00z Mon |
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| SREF Sig Tornado Ingredients Parameter targeting N Illinois |
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| NAM Sig Tornado Parameter targeting SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma, and N Illinois |
At the moment I am partial to E Kansas due to it being close to a triple point and a more realistic chasing target for me. However, I do like the potential in N Illinois. If it wasn't for classes on Monday, I would want to chase on my favorite terrain/road network in the country in N Illinois.
This could potentially be a significant outbreak, so people across the Midwest and Central/Southern Plains need to be paying attention and reviewing severe weather safety before this event. Stay tuned to local news outlets and NOAA weather radios for up to the minute details.
Donovan Gruner
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